Somewhere in your county, 2,000+ homes are about to buy.
Pointer runs every residential property through layers of public-record evidence and isolates the small buying window hidden inside your territory.
The problem everyone lives with
Installers spend on a guess, and can't prove a single close. This is what you buy today:
Shared internet leads
$700–$2,500 per closed job, sold to 4 or 5 different shops at the same time. You fight for scraps.
Raw permit lists
Commodity lists. $1.20 a row, unscored, with absolutely no proof it actually converts to a sale.
Door-knocking
Hours spent per contact, walking blindly into neighborhoods mostly full of renters or non-buyers.
Everyone else sells the opportunity.
VantageHound shares the outcome.
They get paid on the attempt. We get paid on the proof.
The old lead model
The VantageHound model
Exclusive inside your territory. Never sold to competing installers.
You cover the direct campaign cost. Our primary upside comes from closed work.
The resulting permit is an independent record that the job actually happened.
What we actually sell
Not a list. The small part of the county where demand is forming.
A permit list is a commodity. VantageHound starts with every eligible home in a county, scores the full population, and isolates the small group where the evidence of near-term replacement demand is strongest.
On September 22 we found our headline lift was measured against the wrong baseline and corrected it; the honest numbers are below.
About 8% of the homes we mail replace within a year, measured in the public permit record. Each market below.
| Market test | Homes selected | Replace within a year | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spokane HVAC | 3,939 | 8.2% M | 2024-10-31 |
| Austin / Travis HVAC | 7,863 | 5.3% M | 2024-10-31 |
| Austin / Travis Sewer | 15,476 | 0.7% M | 2024-10-31 |
| Austin / Travis Windows | 14,130 | 0.9% M | 2024-10-31 |
| Austin / Travis Electrical (panel upgrades) | 14,803 | 1.7% M | 2024-10-31 |
| Spokane Sewer | 6,233 | 2.2% M | 2024-10-31 |
| Spokane Roofing | 5,421 | 3.7% M | 2024-10-31 |
Each rung is the share of those homes that replaced within the year, in the public permit record.
[M] measured on permit outcomes, as of the date shown.
7 tests. Two states. Five trades. Every rate from the public permit record.
Different records, weather and housing markets; in each one the homes we select are followed forward in the permit record, and the share that replaced within a year is the number above. Nothing is projected.
Endpoints measured: 147,635 → 3,939, Spokane County HVAC. The endpoints are measured; the intermediate counts illustrate the narrowing (interpolated), and the qualifying-signal vocabulary is redacted on purpose.
We keep the highest-value gates private. But we do not ask anyone to trust a black box. Every layer is tested against history: we score homes as of a past date, then check what actually happened next, permit-verified.
A layer survives only if the homes it keeps beat an equally-active control home and a shuffled-date placebo, and hold up against future permit records. If a signal cannot predict what happens next, it does not survive.
The result feels like magic. The proof is permit-verified.
We kill our own ideas
Nine signals looked like gold; our own tests broke them.
We tested signals that looked incredible on paper—until an honest control broke them. A team that won't fool itself is why the numbers hold. What survived is what you get.
9 of 16 tested signals killed by our own tests
The machine compounds.
Your list is built to get sharper every wave.
Close a territory once. It pays again next year, and your results teach the engine exactly what a buyer looks like in your county.
Recurring
Renews with you — one contractor per county while the retainer is current.
Stacking
Grow your footprint. Add trades and cross-sell directly to the same homes.
Learning
Every wave's outcomes are recorded against the prediction. The model is built to re-weight from them, so each list is designed to be sharper than the last.
How you pay
Retainer (coverage) + Wave deposit (postage) + Success fee (on the close).
Success-aligned
Compared to a $700–$2,500 shared lead, our success fee only triggers when you close.
The Moat
One contractor per county — enforced by contract, never resold.
Founding territory
Early counties get founding pricing and co-built waves.
As we expand, the first contractor to lock a county secures our founding terms. You help us refine the model for your local market, and you lock in the territory before your competitors even know it's available.
One contractor per county.
When yours is claimed, it's closed.
Permits are public. Your competitor could hold this page too.